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From the second half of September to the beginning of October, ICE cotton futures fell from 82 cents to 76 cents and then consolidated between 76-78 cents. The Coulter A Index fell from 92 cents to 86 cents. In the same period, the spot price of Chinese cotton fell from 16,300 yuan / ton to 16,000 yuan / ton, India's S-6 fell from 47,700 rupees / Kander to 46,500 rupees / kande. Affected by a 3% drop in the rupee against the US dollar, Indian cotton export offers fell from 84 cents to 80 cents. Pakistan's spot price fell first and then rose, and the rupee's 8% fall against the US dollar offset the impact of rising cotton prices. In dollar terms, the spot price in Pakistan fell from 81 cents to 76 cents.
The US Department of Agriculture announced a slight downward revision of global cotton production and consumption in October. The ending stocks in 2017/18 and 2018/19 decreased by 2.9 million bales and 3 million bales respectively. The inventory outside China decreased by 3 million bales, but still high. 44.6 million packs. After the USDA has comprehensively revised the historical data of India's stocks, the gap between the official forecast and India's domestic forecast has narrowed, and the gap between the two is still huge. The Indian Cotton Association currently expects 1.8 million bales at the end of 2017/18, while the USDA forecast is 9 million bales.
Recently, the southeastern cotton region of the United States has suffered two consecutive hurricanes, and "Michael" has brought more losses to the new cotton in the United States. Despite this, cotton demand is still worrying, the main intention is the uncertainty brought about by Sino-US trade friction. On September 24, China and the United States began to implement a new round of mutual tariffs. Most of the textiles imported from the United States enter retail, and Chinese products account for a large share (30-40%), so the purchase cost of American consumers will undoubtedly increase, resulting in a decline in demand.
In addition to demand, cotton imports will also be affected. In the past few months, Chinese textile mills have adopted a wait-and-see attitude in the face of tariff increases, and in recent weeks, a large number of contracts have been cancelled. China's abandonment of US cotton to other varieties will cause major changes in the global cotton trade pattern. At the same time, the market expects that the decline in China's reserve cotton stocks will lead to increased imports and the decline in Australian cotton production will also make the market outlook more complicated.
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